2010 Dolphins Draft Analysis

Let me begin by saying that I found it quite funny that the same day that my last article posted, Miami went and decided to basically make my article outdated. Jeff Ireland held his pre-draft press conference a few weeks ago, and in it he made a statement “Just because Bill and I haven’t done something before, doesn’t mean we won’t do it now” Obviously trading for a big-time diva type wide receiver would fall under  that category. The Brandon Marshall trade certainly makes the AFC East one of the best divisions in football, sans the Buffalo Bills. The beauty of the trade for Miami was that they addressed a position of need, with an elite player in his prime. That is a major coup anytime any team can do that. Add in that they didn’t have to give up the #12 pick, and it makes it an even better trade. In this article, I will look at an interesting thing regarding all the teams in the AFC East, and then post potential draft names and possibilities for the Miami Dolphins.

With the Buffalo Bills making the switch to the 3-4 defense going into the 2010 season, it means that all four teams in the division play this style. I am not sure what style 3-4 that the Bills plan on running, but regardless, the same type of players are needed. What also is interesting of note, the Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins all have very similar needs. Even with Randy Moss and Wes Welker, the Patriots, like the Dolphins and the Jets, need to address the WR position. However, with the recent arrivals of Santonio Holmes and Brandon Marshall, WR dropped from a position of need for all 3 teams, and falls under the best player available approach for all 3. The entire division is void of good, pass rushing OLB’s. Buffalo has no true NT to speak of, and Miami and New York  have aging players coming off injuries (In Miami’s case, Jason Ferguson is also facing an 8 game suspension) As good as Vince Wilfork is, even with the drafting of Ron Brace, I still think NT is a position the Pats are looking at. Both the Dolphins and the Jets could use a ballhawking FS to help make there defenses even more formidable. Buffalo needs help everywhere, but it is safe to say the other 3 teams will be looking for defense early and often. It will be interesting to see how each team’s selections impact the others. Buffalo at 9 could very well take Dan Williams, crossing a good player off of Miami’s board for pick 12, to use an example.

As for Miami, in my opinion the biggest needs for them are FS, NT, and OLB. I could write an article on each position stating why that position is the bigger need. I do not want to do that, so I will simply address each position and give you some names to watch for as far as Miami goes. I can tell you that there are lots of rumors regarding Ronnie Brown, Justin Smiley, and Tyler Thigpen being available for trade. Brown is a RFA, and has yet to sign his tender. Until he does so, he can not be traded anywhere. I personally don’t like the idea of moving Brown, he is supremely talented when he can stay on the field, and with the acquisition of Marshall, Brown should be even better. The problem facing Miami is that this is the deepest draft in a long time, and while they definitely got a better player for the 43^rd pick than they would have if they had drafted one, they desperately want to get back into the 2^nd round. Whether they accomplish that by trading Brown, or moving back in the draft, that is their intended goal heading into the draft. The Eagles have been mentioned as a team to maybe move from 24 up into the top 10-12 picks to acquire a FS, notably Earl Thomas. Lastly, Chris Mortenson has gone on record saying Osi Umenyiora is a possibility for the Dolphins to trade for, though I don’t see that happening. It is well known how much nonsense gets floated out there the week before the draft.

I will start with the FS spot. Before the Marshall trade, I wouldn’t have ruled out Miami moving up, maybe to 5 with Kansas City (a similar type trade that the Jets did with the Browns last year, in which because of familiarity, wouldn’t cost as much as usual) to acquire Eric Berry. I think that of all the players Miami covets, Berry is the number one guy. However, lacking the ammo to move up to get him, he would have to fall to 12, which is highly unlikely. The next best guy is Earl Thomas. Miami interviewed him at the scouting combine, and a few weeks later met with him again. The following week, he met with each of the Big 3 in person, watching tape with Jeff Ireland and chatting football and life with the Tuna. Mike Nolan recently went to Gainesville and met with Major Wright. The term being thrown out there is that Miami is “smitten” with him. The common problem that will present itself for Miami with a lot of these guys is a lot of good talent will be picked between 12 and 73, thus the need to get back into round 2. Wright almost assuredly won’t be there at 73. Other names that I know Miami likes are Nate Allen of USF, Morgan Burnett out of GT, Rashad Jones of Georgia, and Robert Johnson of Utah. Regardless of who the pick is, I don’t think Miami had a bigger weakness last year than FS, as Gibril Wilson was terrible. They understand they have to get much better, so this position will for sure be addressed.

What makes the OLB need interesting is that this class is very, very deep. Miami is very likely to have their first choice at 12, or at least their 2^nd choice. The name really being mentioned for them Is Derrick Morgan. He fits everything Parcells & Co like as far as prototype goes. He has the size, the production, and the athleticism that they covet. Jason Pierre Paul would be a shocker of a pick at 12, he lacks the production that Miami likes, having only started 7 games at USF. Sergio Kindle is a possibility for them, though there is big time question marks about his ability to set the edge and stop the run. The two guys that I think would be the best fit for them are Brandon Graham and Jerry Hughes. Graham’s problems run in that he is about 2 and a half inches too short for the prototype Miami likes (NE has the same prototype) What can not be argued is Graham’s production.  He has amazing stats the last 2 years at Michigan, and his TFL’s is a very eye opening stat. Jerry Hughes is interesting because in my opinion, if he had played at Texas rather than TCU, he would be a top 15 pick. Mel Kiper has recently mocked Hughes to Miami at 12, which is about 10 spots higher than I have seen him mocked anywhere else. Hughes is a pure pass rusher, and very good at the point of attack. It would not shock me if he was Miami’s pick at all, though ideally I think they’d like to trade down and still get him somewhere in the 20’s. Potential names to look for in round 3 and beyond are Ricky Sapp, Koa Misi, Thaddeus Gibson, Cameron Sheffield, Jason Worilds, Dexter Davis and Arthur Moats. I believe Mike Nolan becoming defensive coordinator will have a similar effect to Rex Ryan taking over and being more aggressive than Eric Mangini and Co were. Miami wasn’t very exotic in their blitz packages, and Nolan will help there. For this reason, I don’t think that OLB has to be as big a priority early on, and can be addressed later on in the draft.

Lastly, the NT position, if Dan Williams is there, I believe Miami could very well make him the pick. Not to beat a dead horse, but between picks 12 and 73, it is very, very likely that Terrence Cody, Cam Thomas, Linvall Joseph,  and Torrell Troup will be picked. The NT is arguably the most important position in the 3-4, and Paul Soliai only proved to be average once Jason Ferguson was injured. Some late round names to keep an eye on are Jeff Owens and Kade Weston of Georgia, and Al Woods or LSU.

All that being said, it comes down to 3 players for Miami if they do in fact make the selection at 12. Derrick Morgan, Earl Thomas, and Dan Williams. The question will be who, if any, is available when Miami gets on the clock. If all 3 are there, I believe that Earl Thomas will be the pick. If Miami had the same roster 10 years ago and Parcells was making the pick, it would be Derrick Morgan in a heartbeat. However, as evidenced by the Brandon Marshall trade, this is a passing league now. The Dolphins know they got destroyed by good TE’s and average QB’s last year, and they need to address that. Karlos Dansby is very good in coverage, but he only can do so much. For all of these reasons, I think Earl Thomas will be the name called when Miami makes the 12^th pick in the 2010 draft.

Tags: 2010 draft, Miami Dolphins